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Should Equity Return Assumptions In Retirement Projections Be Reduced For Today’s High Shiller CAPE Valuation?

January 13, 2016 07:01 am 49 Comments CATEGORY: Retirement Planning

The sustainability of retirement cash flows from a portfolio depends in no small part on the returns generated by that portfolio – in particular, the real returns, given the pernicious impact of inflation over a multi-decade retirement.

In today’s high-valuation environment, many retirement projections are being done with reduced long-term return assumptions… with the caveat that while many advisors agree on the need to project lower returns, there is little agreement on how much lower it should be.

A look at the available market data suggests that realistically, it would be appropriate to reduce equity return assumptions by about 100bps (or 1 percentage point) over the next 30 years, to reflect the current valuation environment. Ironically, the reduction is not greater, because 30 years is such a long time that even if returns are bad for a period of time, there are enough subsequent years to recover as well.

In point of fact, though, it turns out that market valuation is even more predictive of 15-year returns, and that today’s high P/E ratios imply that between now and 2030, market returns could be reduced by as much as 400bps. On the other hand, because market valuations (and the associated returns) tend to move in cycles, this also implies that in the 2030s and 2040s, market returns could be as much as 400bps above the long-term average as well.

Ultimately, then, the ideal way to adjust return assumptions in a retirement plan in today’s environment may not be to reduce long-term returns at all, but instead to do projections with a “regime-based” approach to return assumptions. This would entail projecting a period of much lower returns, followed by a subsequent period of higher returns, in a manner that more accurately reflects the impact of market valuation on returns – and better accounts for the sequence-of-return risk along the way as well!

Life Settlements – Selling A Life Insurance Policy That’s No Longer Wanted For More Than Its Cash Value

January 12, 2016 07:01 am 9 Comments CATEGORY: Insurance

Wasted Value Of Life Insurance Value e1451792860956

The classic view of life insurance is that it is purchased as long as needed or desired, and then lapsed (or if there's any cash value, surrendered) when it is no longer necessary. Term insurance policies are usually expected to lapse, and in practice even "permanent" insurance often ends out being surrendered before it is ever paid out as a death claim.

Technically, though, there is a third option to the "keep versus lapse" decision of life insurance: to sell the policy to a third party in a transaction called a "life settlement" to an (institutional) investor who might be willing to pay more than just the policy's cash value (or the $0 value that might be available if the coverage just lapses on its own). After all, in the hands of an investor, a life insurance policy is simply an "investment" that has ongoing cash flow requirements (premiums) but will eventually mature as a (much larger) death benefit later. So as long as the time horizon is "reasonable", the policy can actually have a remarkably appealing implied rate of return to an investor, for which the current policyowner can be paid!

In this guest post, Lingke Wang - co-founder of Ovid Life, a technology firm aiming to create a centralized transparent marketplace for life settlements transactions - provides a "Financial Advisor's Guide To Life Settlements" with a detailed review of the life settlement industry, what a life settlement provider is and how life settlements operate, and the mechanics of how an investor evaluates a prospective life settlement contract purchase (which is important to understand for any policyowner who might be selling their life insurance policy!).

Ironically, the biggest caveat of engaging in a life settlement is the reality that any life settlement policy worth selling to an investor is worth even more in the long run for the policyowner to just keep themselves, where the internal rate of return will be even more appealing (since the investor has both transaction costs to acquire the policy, and does not enjoy the death benefit tax free as the original policyowner would). Nonetheless, that appealing internal rate of return for keeping a permanent life insurance policy only applies by continuing to maintain the policy, including ongoing premiums. So for a policyowner who simply doesn't want to - or can't afford to - keep the policy in the first place, a life settlement may still be a more appealing exit than just letting the policy lapse away!

An Emerging War Over Who Controls Client Data, And The Unconsidered Consequences Of Rising Interest Rates – Top Financial Advisor Issues For 2016

January 11, 2016 07:01 am 4 Comments CATEGORY: Planning Profession

In last week's blog post, we looked at what is shaping up to be the dominant issue for financial advisors in 2016: the rollout of the Department of Labor's new fiduciary rule, which will likely reshape not just the delivery of financial advice, but challenge the relevance of the companies that support financial advisors (i.e., broker-dealers), and the nature of how financial services products are distributed (in a world where companies will no longer be able to use big commissions to incentivize the use of their products).

However, the rest of the world is not standing still while regulatory change looms. The ongoing march of technology continues, and while 2014 was the year of the robo-advisor and 2015 was the year of robo-advisors-for-advisors, it appears that in 2016 the big issue in FinTech will be a looming war over client data - who has access to it, who controls it, how is it protected, and ultimately does the data about the client belong to the financial services firm or to the client themselves? As account aggregation is increasingly used not just to track a client's household data but actually used to facilitate money transfers - not to mention companies beginning to leverage the information for big data insights - the question of who has what rights to financial data and what can be done with it is coming to a head in 2016.

And of course, it's important to recognize what may still be the biggest outright impact to the business of most financial advisors in 2016 - the Fed's new path of raising interest rates, for the first time in nearly a decade, and the consequences that may bring in the coming year. The "good" news is that at least with fixed income enjoying outright higher yields, the pressure may be reduced for advisors to seek out various "alternative" asset classes in search of yield and return. The "badl" news, though, is that rising rates can adversely impact bond prices, and even risks cracking the stock market as today's P/E ratios and market valuations may not look as appealing once bonds are paying more. Yet ultimately, some of the biggest consequences of higher interest rates may be the secondary effects, from improvements in the pricing of long-term care insurance, to higher payouts and better guarantees from deferred annuities, and a potential explosion of earnings growth for RIA custodians (with some estimates that Schwab's total earnings could triple in a normalized rate environment!)... not to mention the ripple effects across the entire economy with changes to the cost of capital and the discount rate used in most financial models.
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Weekend Reading for Financial Planners (Jan 9-10)

January 8, 2016 01:41 pm 1 Comment CATEGORY: Weekend Reading

Enjoy the current installment of "weekend reading for financial planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the latest release of FINRA's regulatory and exam priorities in 2016, where the organization has indicated its leading target is "broker-dealer culture" around compliance and the way that conflicts of interest are handled.

From there, we have several practice management articles this week, including: the ongoing rise of social media adoption by advisors (and that the highest adoption is amongst the most financially successful advisors); how despite the rise of social media, "old-fashioned" email remains a remarkably effective marketing strategy; tips on how to manage advisory firm staff members, particularly regarding setting and then monitoring/managing employee goals; a round-up review by advisor tech guru Joel Bruckenstein of leading RIA custodian technology platforms including Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and LPL; and an article providing a great reminder that the real key to time management is not getting more efficient about what you do but getting better about deciding what not to do in the first place.

We also have a couple of technical articles this week, from a look at how "stress testing" portfolios with tools like HiddenLevers is becoming a popular alternative to analyzing traditional portfolio risk metrics like standard deviation or value-at-risk (VaR), to a discussion of how the structuring of irrevocable trusts has changed in recent years (from the separation of administrative and investment trustees to the rise of distribution committees and trust protectors), and a review of the data on what the true odds really are that a 65-year-old will need long-term care.

We wrap up with three interesting articles: the first is a discussion of the rising battle between banks and other financial institutions, and the account aggregation and personal financial management tools that draw upon and use that data (and potentially overload bank servers in the process); the second is a look at how economics research has been undergoing a significant shift in the past 30 years, from research being dominated by pure theory to increasingly focusing on real-world empirical data (supported by the availability of the personal computer and the rise of the internet and its data accessibility); and the last is a great reminder of the perspective that can be gained when a financial planner actually becomes a financial planning client, and sees the financial planning experience (and how it can be improved) from the other side of the table.

Enjoy the "light" reading!

Why Monte Carlo Analysis Still Matters And The Risk Of A Retiree Black Swan Is [Probably] Overrated

January 7, 2016 12:01 pm 17 Comments CATEGORY: Retirement Planning

Michael Kitces Black Swan Office Hours Periscope Thumbnail

Over the past 15 years, we’ve seen the rapid rise of Monte Carlo analysis as a tool for analyzing retirement. Yet at the same time, the use of conventional statistics to project potential market scenarios has been under attack, for failing to capture the so-called “Black Swan” phenomenon.

In this week’s #OfficeHours with @MichaelKitces – a new video series we’ve launched where I will take reader questions, both emailed and live, every Tuesday at 1PM EST via the Periscope social media platform – we look at the phenomenon of Black Swans, what a black swan event really is, and how the “risk” of a black swan is quite different for a long-term retiree who takes annual withdrawals versus a leveraged hedge fund who faces the risk of having their debt called in.

In fact, we ultimately find that while Monte Carlo analysis for retirees is commonly criticized for failing to capture extreme market events, it turns out that the biggest problem with Monte Carlo is not that it fails to model the downside risks but that it actually understates the possibility for upside surprises!

You can see me discuss all of this and more in our #OfficeHours video posted in today’s article, along with details on how to sign up to watch the next broadcast live, and participate for yourself!

How Continuing To Work, Even In Retirement, Can Increase Social Security Benefits

January 6, 2016 07:02 am 76 Comments CATEGORY: Retirement Planning

The conventional view of delaying Social Security is that doing so is an opportunity to earn delayed retirement credits, an 8%/year increase in benefits that can be highly appealing in today’s low-yield environment.

However, the reality is that delaying Social Security benefits doesn't just increase benefits by earning delayed retirement credits. Additional years of working while collecting Social Security benefits can also increase the worker’s Average Indexed Monthly Earnings used to calculate those Social Security benefits in the first place, just as ending work early can reduce AIME below what is projected as benefits on the Social Security statement.

And depending on how much additional income will be earned – and how low his/her historical earnings really are – the reality is that continuing to work while getting Social Security benefits can produce a material increase in future payments for some workers, simply because of how benefits are recalculated. In other words, for those past full retirement age (and no longer subject to the Earnings Test), it’s possible to be receiving Social Security benefits while working and have those years added to the Social Security work history to generate higher future benefits as well!

In the end, working while on Social Security won’t always produce a significant increase in Social Security benefits. For those whose prior working years produced more income – at least on an inflation-adjusted basis – it’s possible that continuing to work will generate no additional benefits at all. Nonetheless, for those who haven’t fully capped out Social Security benefits based on 35 years of maximal earnings already, it is possible to be working and getting Social Security benefits at the same time, and have that work increase the benefits (at least after reaching full retirement age). And the potential for a benefits increase can be material in some cases, and thus should definitely be considered in the timing and impact of when to stop working!