All Nerd's Eye View Blog Articles On Investment Planning

2025 Mid-Year Market Outlook: 9 Key Questions To Frame Client Conversations

July 2, 2025 07:01 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

The first half of 2025 has been a wild ride, both in terms of news headlines and market movements. From tariffs, a market correction, and an escalating conflict in the Middle East to the dollar reaching a three-year low, the investment landscape presented many reasons for concern. Nonetheless, the market has staged one of the fastest recoveries in history, and the S&P 500 is hovering near all-time highs despite seeing its year-to-date return falling to a low of -15.3% in April.

In this guest post, James Liu, CEO and founder of Clearnomics, offers an analysis of nine key questions that could be relevant for upcoming client conversations, from the potential economic and market impact of tariffs to the Federal Reserve's views on interest rates and their future direction.

One of the major news topics during the first half of the year was the ups and downs of U.S. tariff and trade policy, with President Trump announcing a set of increased tariffs on a wide range of countries, then pausing or reducing some while keeping overall tariff levels higher than before he assumed office in January. While the U.S. stock market has rebounded following the partial tariff easing, some clients might be wondering whether the ongoing tariff saga will induce a recession. So far, though, the U.S. economy has been resilient, with encouraging inflation trends and unemployment remaining relatively low. And while the first quarter saw a negative GDP figure, this appears to be due in large part to a surge in imports ahead of expected tariffs.

Always a subject of intrigue, the Federal Reserve has received significant attention this year as market participants await expected rate cuts. So far, the Fed has maintained its key policy rate – the federal funds target range – at 4.25% to 4.50%, demonstrating a measured approach to monetary policy. While the Fed will likely balance potential future weakness in economic growth against possible tariff-induced inflation when making rate decisions, the general consensus among Fed officials continues to be that there could be two rate cuts in 2025.

Looking beyond the United States, some clients might be concerned that global affairs – such as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East – could affect their portfolios. So far, though, markets have largely shrugged off geopolitical concerns, with international stocks outpacing their U.S. counterparts so far this year (rewarding investors who maintained allocations to international stocks) and oil prices remaining at relatively low levels.

In terms of valuations, current multiples for the S&P 500 remain above historical averages, even after the earlier market correction, which suggests less room for error as stocks become more sensitive to disappointments in earnings or growth projections. In this environment, some investors might favor sectors or segments that offer reasonable value relative to expected growth, which has helped drive increased interest in international markets, small- and mid-cap stocks, and value-oriented sectors trading at more attractive multiples. At the same time, fixed-income markets continue to have valuations that look very reasonable, providing a positive balance to diversified portfolios.

Ultimately, the key point is that amid the range of economic and market developments in the first half of 2025, investors who have stayed the course and maintained diversified portfolios have been rewarded with positive returns. Which could serve as an opportunity for advisors to demonstrate to their clients how they have positioned their portfolios appropriately for their unique investment timeframes and financial goals!

10 Charts To Help Address Client Concerns On Recession Fears, Tariff Risks, And Market Volatility

March 26, 2025 07:03 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

While financial markets tend to rise in the long run, short-term volatility can be alarming for investors. Recent swings have been driven by economic policy shifts, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty – all of which may unnerve even the steadiest of clients. During turbulent periods like these, advisors play a critical role in helping clients maintain perspective and stay grounded.

In this article, James Liu, CEO and founder of Clearnomics, and Lindsey Bell, the firm's Chief Market Strategist, present ten charts to help advisors contextualize the current market environment. Each visual is paired with talking points designed to help advisors reframe volatility in a way that speaks to clients' concerns.

As a starting point, it's helpful to reinforce that investing success isn't about timing the market or picking winning stocks, sectors, or asset classes. Rather, it's about constructing a portfolio that aligns with a client's long-term goals. While stocks have recently declined, bond yields are above historical averages – highlighting the importance of maintaining a diversified mix. And while cash can feel safe, it often fails to keep pace with inflation, especially in turbulent markets. In that same vein, diversification remains the core of a healthy portfolio to protect against market corrections and underperformance, as no single asset class outperforms indefinitely.

It may also be helpful to discuss the drivers of current market corrections. Advisors might acknowledge that inflation and political uncertainty often elicit market reactions, and that many economic policy decisions can be controversial and divide public opinion. Nevertheless, history shows that markets have performed well under both political parties. Much of what's happening now reflects companies adapting to present-day challenges – from higher input costs to shifting consumer demand. Advisors can guide clients' attention to where growth is happening and to areas of economic resilience – such as persistently low unemployment – that are often overlooked in negative news cycles.

Finally, advisors can emphasize that while market corrections never feel good, they are a natural part of the investing cycle – just like market recoveries. And because recoveries are difficult to time, the best thing investors can do is to stay the course and focus on long-term goals. Advisors are uniquely positioned to offer not only perspective and education, but also empathy and reassurance during tough market periods when clients may need it most.

The key point is that challenging market environments give advisors the opportunity to tailor talking points to a client's specific anxieties. Being well-informed about the market influences, remaining empathetic, and maintaining a long-term perspective are all crucial to guiding clients through market corrections. And, while unpleasant, tough market conditions offer a way for advisors to explain the critical role of a well-diversified portfolio, demonstrate their knowledge, and ultimately affirm their long-term value!

Why Quality Factor ETFs Have Seen Large Inflows Over The Last Year – And How Advisors Can Use Them In Client Portfolios

July 3, 2024 07:01 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

Over the past few decades, technological advances and plummeting transaction costs have facilitated the emergence of a dizzying variety of ways to gain exposure to very specific areas of the market. As a result, advicers have more options than ever to add value for their clients by tailoring investment portfolios that are specific to their unique needs, goals, and risk tolerance. One approach that has become increasingly popular is the use of factor-based ETFs, which are designed around certain shared characteristics of assets that go beyond the more traditional attributes (e.g., size, industry, location) of early mutual funds. While there are literally hundreds of identifiable factors, the most well-known are Quality, Value, Momentum, Small Size, and Minimum Volatility.

In this guest post, Robert Hum, a Managing Director and U.S. Head of Factor ETFs at Blackrock, discusses why Quality factor ETFs have seen large inflows over the last year, the characteristics that define Quality, and how advicers can implement Quality ETFs in their clients' portfolios.

As we head towards the second half of 2024, investors continue to grapple with many of the same issues that have influenced the overall market action for the past several quarters. While inflationary pressures have continued to trend lower and the jobs market seems to have tightened somewhat, the Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see mode in regard to any potential rate cuts, international tensions remain elevated, and the level of concentration in a handful of (arguably overvalued) stocks persists.

As a result, this macroeconomic and market uncertainty has ostensibly driven a preference for overweighting higher-quality companies in investment portfolios. Specifically, 'high-quality' companies share several similar fundamental characteristics. For instance, research has shown that companies whose revenue is driven by their core business functions (versus temporary accounting transactions) tend to have more sustainable earnings and higher future stock returns. Leverage also comes into play, as firms with lower debt-to-equity ratios are less risky, particularly in high-interest-rate climates. Moreover, companies that are more profitable (as measured by their return on equity) tend to outperform their less-profitable peers, even after accounting for the higher price multiples they often carry… and that relative outperformance has tended to increase with longer holding periods!

With those factors (no pun intended!) in mind, there are 3 primary ways that advicers can use Quality ETFs in portfolios. First is from a tactical perspective, where quality strategies that focus on companies with lower debt-to-equity ratios have lower total interest expenses and may be better positioned to weather the current higher-for-longer rate regime. Second, advicers can use Quality ETFs strategically. Quality ETFs tend to have a lower 'tracking error' in comparison to other factor-based products and, therefore, can be used as a large-cap blended fund. Finally, Quality ETFs can be an effective diversifier, particularly in portfolios that are tilted toward the Value factor.

Although Quality ETFs have already shown solid relative performance year-to-date, the longer-term case for Quality may still be compelling, given persistently high interest rates and the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Advicers can add value for clients who may be concerned about a possible economic slowdown by maintaining their overall portfolio mix consistent with a strategic focus on an area that tends to show relative strength during downturns. Ultimately, by offering clients strategies to respond to changes in the economic cycle, advicers can help clients stay disciplined and focused on their long-term goals!

In The Long Run, Stocks Outperform Bonds… Or Do They?

April 10, 2024 07:02 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

Financial advicers are intimately familiar with the phrase, "Past results are not indicative of future performance." Every document that considers the facts around any particular asset class will invariably include that disclaimer, but constructing a portfolio consisting of a mix of equities, fixed income, and other assets requires investors and advicers to make some fundamental assumptions around long-term expected returns and correlations between assets. 3 common assumptions that have driven asset allocation decisions for decades are that 1) equities have historically outperformed fixed income over the long-term, 2) bonds act as an effective diversifier in a portfolio since they are negatively correlated to stocks, and 3) various combinations of non-correlated assets improve a portfolio's expected return per unit of risk. However, as investors learned in 2022, when the S&P 500 and 20-year Treasury Bonds fell 18.1% and 26.1%, respectively, historical "tendencies" don't always hold over shorter timeframes, prompting the question: How reliable are our assumptions around the long-term performance of stocks and bonds?

On the one hand, in an analysis of data going back to 1802 in his seminal book, "Stocks For The Long Run", Jeremy Siegel concluded that stocks outperformed bonds over long periods. However, Edward McQuarrie, author of the 2023 study "Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No," reached back even further to 1793 and expanded the data set to include 3–5X more stocks and 5–10X more bonds. Accordingly, McQuarrie found that, while stocks did indeed far outperform bonds between 1942–1981, not only did stocks and bonds produce about the same wealth accumulation during the 150-year period before 1942, but the same held true from 1982–2019 as well.

So, although the entire 227-year span of McQuarrie's analysis from 1793 to 2019 was weakly supportive of Siegel's conclusions, there were subperiods where bonds actually outperformed stocks, leading McQuarrie to conclude that there was no consistent relationship between asset outperformance and length of holding period to which values must revert. Instead, McQuarrie argued that the changes over various periods depend solely upon the 'regime' in place, where a regime is defined as "a temporary pattern of asset returns" characterized by "ceaseless variation" over time.

Meanwhile, McQuarrie also found that stock-bond correlations have also been "highly variable over 20-year intervals, ranging all the way from about −0.70 to 0.90", suggesting that, in addition to performance, correlations are also subject to regime changes and that bonds don't always effectively diversify risk. In fact, they can even magnify risk, as was the case for the 7 decades between 1926–1999, when the stock-bond correlation was a positive 0.18.

Finally, over time, regime changes have also lowered the overall risk of equity investing. For example, the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the SEC in 1934 have helped to reduce economic volatility and increase corporate transparency. These changes, along with lower trading costs, have made the world a much safer (and less expensive) place for investors, who, as a result of reduced investment risks, may experience lower future returns.

There are several takeaways for advicers as they serve their clients. First is the fact that stocks (specifically because they carry a higher risk level) have not always outperformed bonds, and while stocks should carry a risk premium, advicers can turn to Monte Carlo simulations to consider a wider dispersion of outcomes, versus relying on 'expected' returns when developing investment plans. Second, the stock-bond performance-correlation relationships are regime-dependent, and those regimes are neither time-dependent nor mean-reverting.

As a result, an advicer's primary consideration when developing asset allocation plans should be the diversification of risk, while accounting for the fact that bonds won't always be an effective tool to achieve such diversification. Moreover, advicers might consider incorporating alternative investments into client portfolios, including things such as long-short factor strategies, private equity debt, reinsurance, consumer and small-business lending, among other assets. Ultimately, the key point is that there are asset classes outside the traditional stock-bond universe that can be used to create portfolios that are more diversified and that may be better suited to address a particular client's ability, willingness, and need to take risk!

1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

April 3, 2024 07:02 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Even more difficult is using data based on samples and surveys (and subject to constant revision!) to develop some idea about which of the myriad possible outcomes might be more likely to occur. Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop.

In this guest post, Larry Swedroe, Head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Wealth Partners, reviews key aspects of economic activity in the 1st quarter of 2024, examines what the behaviors in the various financial markets might be suggesting about investor expectations, and offers insight into how advisors might help clients prepare moving forward.

As has been the case for the past several quarters, the prevailing characteristic of the economy is one of bifurcation, with interest rate-sensitive sectors remaining in a recession (as evidenced by the manufacturing sector's 16-month-long contraction), while the services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP) continues to expand. Importantly, headline inflation has continued to trend lower, but with persistent upward pressure on wages in the services sector, a rebound in housing prices, and no relief in sight for skyrocketing auto insurance, home insurance, and home repairs (as well as trade-route disruptions arising from turmoil in the Red Sea), the Fed may have little choice but to keep rates elevated as they pursue their elusive 2% inflation target.

Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative. Notably, the work-from-home movement has resulted in a dramatic drop in office valuations that could lead to a whole host of issues, including lending constraints in the banking sector, which is already sitting on a mountain of unrealized losses on Treasuries and mortgages. Lower office valuations may also squeeze tax receipts in municipalities, particularly large cities that are already experiencing financial strains due to the surge in illegal immigration and the flight of high-income individuals and companies to states with lower taxes.

The equity market is experiencing its own bifurcation, with a wide dispersion in (extremely elevated) valuations across the "Magnificent 7" and the rest of the market, which is much closer to historical averages. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession. Looking forward, equity analysts predict earnings growth in 2024 of 11.5%, which stands in stark contrast to the Philly Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters expectations of total GDP growth of 'just' 3.8%. Given that corporate profits have historically tracked GDP growth, this inconsistency creates an interesting enigma.

Ultimately, the key point is that advisors can prepare clients for the possibility of increased volatility as the year develops, along with lower equity returns due to lower potential economic growth, high valuations in leading stocks, persistent inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and rising fiscal debt. Some strategies can include adjusting assumptions for future equity returns and increasing allocations to fixed-income assets that are less sensitive to inflation shocks (particularly shorter-term bonds with low credit risk, including TIPS and floating rate debt). Additionally, advisors may look to increase diversification with assets that have historically low correlation with economic cycles, including reinsurance, private lending, consumer credit, commodities, and long-short factor funds. The bottom line is that by assessing the broader economic landscape, advisors can help clients weather the potential risks on the horizon, position themselves to take advantage of possible opportunities, and (most importantly) remain focused on their long-term goals!

The Problem Of High U.S. Equity Valuations And How Advisors Can Factor In Current Evaluations Risks

March 6, 2024 07:04 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

Financial advisors often discuss how futile it is to try and predict what will happen in the stock market, and yet the reality is that a core component of creating a financial plan involves making a prediction for how markets will behave, at least in the long run. An assumed rate of return is needed, for example, to illustrate how much a client might need to save for retirement, how much savings they'll have when they do retire, and how long their savings will last after they stop working. Which means that advisors need some way to create a reasonable return assumption, even as just a starting 'average' scenario around which the advisor can build other scenarios to illustrate better or worse cases.

One way to predict future market returns is to use the past as a guide, with nearly 100 years of continuous market data since the 1920s covering a wide range of economic conditions showing that, for instance, the S&P 500 has had nearly a 10% average compounding return (7% above inflation) since 1926. And yet the problem with using that long-term average return is that investors generally don't have 100 years to invest – their time horizons are much shorter, usually spanning a few decades at most, and in those instances the conditions at the beginning of the time period (namely the market valuation compared to the underlying business and economic conditions at the time) can significantly impact the actual returns experienced over that period.

The Shilller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE 10) Ratio is one example that takes into account current market valuations versus company earnings, generally predicting that the higher the valuation at the beginning of a period the lower the expected return for that period. Which, at today's current high valuations, suggests that, for instance, the S&P 500 might 'only' return just over 5% over the next 10 years (as opposed to the 10% that it has averaged over the last nearly 100 years). Additionally, when breaking down current conditions even further to factor in the impact of the returns on cash, dividend yields, expected tax rates, and corporate leverage, U.S. equities could have a very difficult time trying to match or exceed the average returns of the past (and would need a tech bubble-like increase in valuations to come near the market's performance of the last decade)!

The key point is that when projecting future market returns, simply using historical averages without factoring in current evaluations risks painting an overly optimistic return scenario that could lead to under-saving for retirement (which could be exacerbated by a combination of higher life expectancies, increasing long-term care costs, and governmental funding difficulties around Social Security and Medicare). The good news, however, is that there are ways for advisors to address the current issue of high U.S. equity valuations, including diversification with international stocks (which have much lower valuations) to help mitigate the risk of the S&P 500 failing to repeat its past performance in the future, the use of value stocks, and alternative investments.

4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

January 3, 2024 07:02 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

Niels Bohr famously observed that "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!" The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default. However, given the ongoing debate around the various 'hard', 'soft', or 'no-landing' scenarios that have dominated the headlines due to the Federal Reserve's campaign to tame inflation, it's safe to say that economic uncertainty is especially elevated at the moment. The good news is that by gaining a better understanding of some of the economy's key drivers, financial advisors have the opportunity to deliver more value to their clients by helping them better identify the opportunities and risks present in this highly uncertain environment!

As has been the case for several quarters, the prevailing characteristic remains a "tale of 2 economies". While the manufacturing sector (which makes up 'only' 8% of the U.S. economy) contracted for the 12th consecutive month, the services sector (constituting about 78% of GDP) expanded for the 11th consecutive month, serving as a primary driver behind continued wage inflation as well as tightness in the labor market.

While there's certainly a chance that the Fed will achieve its 2% inflation target without a commensurate spike in unemployment, there are still plenty of threats on the horizon. Notably, banks face pressure on several fronts, including declining values of longer-term debt holdings impacting balance sheets, savers shifting out of savings accounts as they seek higher-yielding money market funds, and record-level office vacancy rates that hinder the refinancing of low-rate real-estate loans into higher-rate loans.

Consumers, meanwhile, have just about burned their way through their post-COVID savings, which was the main driver for GDP growth in 2023. With credit card balances and delinquencies spiking and student loan payments resuming, it's unlikely that consumers will be able to sustain their spending levels and ride to the rescue once again in 2024. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

The labor market, while still remarkably resilient, has also started to show signs of stress. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, job growth has steadily slowed; continuing claims for unemployment hit a 2-year high; the average work week is getting shorter; and job openings, 'quit rates', and wage growth for job switchers have all been falling.

The good news is that while there's little doubt that the economy is indeed slowing, there don't seem to be any "black swans" lurking around the corner, as was the case for 2008's severe recession. As a result, professional forecasters generally agree that there's less than a 50% chance of negative growth throughout 2024 and that unemployment could rise to a manageable 4.1%.

That said, plenty of factors can still impact the economy and markets, including the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, increased tensions with China, a spiking debt-to-GDP ratio, and chances for a government shutdown. Moreover, historically extreme valuations in a small handful of mega-cap stocks that account for about 30% of the market weight in the S&P 500 (i.e., the Magnificent Seven) means that any sort of correction in those names could reverberate through the broader market.

The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns. This can involve reducing exposure to high-risk equities and longer-term bonds while moving towards shorter-term, lower-risk debt. Additionally, diversifying towards assets that still carry a risk premium but have a low correlation to stock market cycles or traditional bond inflation risks (e.g., reinsurance, private lending, consumer credit, long/short factor funds, commodities, and trend-following) can be beneficial. Ultimately, while no one has a (clear) crystal ball or control over any of the myriad factors influencing the markets, advisors play a crucial role in helping their clients understand and navigate these risks, keeping them focused on their long-term goals!

Avoid Getting Caught Up In Big Market Delusions: The Case Study Of Electric Vehicles

October 18, 2023 07:04 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

A key value proposition for financial advisors is helping clients avoid common behavioral biases that can lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Even people who are normally rational decision-makers can be prone to fear, greed, and overconfidence, and the persistence of market bubbles where investors chase whatever company or sector is all the rage at the time (and often get stuck with losses when the bubble pops) shows that herd mentality in investing is as prevalent as ever. Which often leads to advisors counseling their clients to stay diversified and stick with a disciplined investment strategy to optimize their risk and return over the long term.

But even today, despite the evidence we have about our tendencies to make irrational choices, people still often fall prey to herd mentality in their investment decisions, as demonstrated by modern-day bubbles around meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Even professional investors such as venture capitalists aren't immune either, with the rise and fall of companies like WeWork and Theranos showing that sophisticated investors can be enticed to abandon a disciplined approach by a sales pitch that's too good to be true. In fact, as more and more technology proliferates, with much of it promising to have a worldwide and life-changing impact, the temptation to chase the next big thing may grow even stronger.

However, it isn't just individual companies or speculative assets like Bitcoin that can be prone to bubbles. When a new technology or product is introduced that has the potential to reach a huge new market, investors tend to bet on many (or even all) of the companies that provide the technology as if they will each become the dominant player in that market. And because every company can't possibly become a winner (since they're competing with each other, and one company's success will necessarily come at the other's expense), this tends to result in the entire industry becoming overvalued. Investors' enthusiasm tends to feed on itself, resulting in increasingly unrealistic valuations, until suddenly reality comes into focus, and prices drop for all companies in the industry – often wiping out some companies and creating severe losses even in the ones that do survive.

There tend to be 4 main signs of this type of "Big Market Delusion", which have been present in market bubbles ranging from the 1990s dot-com boom to the 2000s digital advertising market to the 2010s cannabis industry. First, there is a story of a vast potential market for a new technology or product; second, investors and entrepreneurs tend to ignore the possibility that competition will squeeze profits for existing companies and reduce expectations for future revenues; third, companies focus overwhelmingly on growth in users or revenue as the primary metric rather than profitability; and finally, the valuations for these companies grow with no connection to their underlying fundamentals. And though it may not be possible to time exactly when a big market bubble will burst, these signs make it highly likely that a correction will happen eventually.

The key point is that when an investor bets on a new technology or industry becoming huge based on the size of its potential market, even 'diversifying' by investing in multiple companies within that industry won't necessarily protect them from losses, because when the entire industry becomes overvalued, the resulting correction is likely to affect everyone. The simple way to avoid getting caught up in big market delusions is by remaining broadly diversified across markets – and for advisors, the lessons learned from previous examples of big market delusions can help guide clients on avoiding the next one!

3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

October 4, 2023 07:01 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. In reality, though, the economy is a complex web of interdependent factors where events often make sense only in hindsight – and sometimes, not at all. This has perhaps never been more true in many financial advisors' careers than at the current moment where, depending on which numbers you look at, the economy could be either growing steadily, leveling off, or already in a recession. And when conditions are this uncertain, it often makes sense to dive deeper into the factors driving the economy to better understand the risks – and opportunities – that clients may face.

At a high level, we're currently seeing a 'tale of 2 economies': While the market for services has expanded steadily since the beginning of the year (with both employment and the price of services growing in kind), the U.S. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months. And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. Furthermore, inflation, though down from its peak in early 2022, remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% despite the bank's attempts to tamp it down.

What's driving many of the economic conditions today are higher interest rates resulting from the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. But while these high rates might be enough to tip the country into a recession if we were in 'normal' times, there has been so much liquidity in the economy – both as a residual effect of the economic stimulus programs of the COVID-19 pandemic and the more recent Inflation Reduction Act and legislation subsidizing green energy and semiconductor manufacturing – that it's possible the Fed may need to hike rates even further (and keep them high for longer than expected) to achieve its inflationary goals.

The expectations for the future economic outlook also appear in the valuations of equities, which tend to reflect how markets anticipate that corporate earnings will grow in the future. Yet again, the numbers tell a different story depending on where you look: While growth stocks (particularly for large companies) are trading at historically high valuations, value stocks are trading as if we were already in a serious recession. And even though U.S. equities have been able to weather a wide variety of economic conditions over the last 30 years (thanks to broader trends of both declining interest rates and corporate tax rates), it's reasonable to wonder whether that era is coming to a close given the Fed's raising interest rates to fight inflation and the Federal government's need to raise tax revenue to address its ballooning budget deficit. There's also the question of whether long-term equity returns could be significantly lower than we've experienced during the post-WWII era without the boost of lower interest and tax rates.

The key point is that, with so much uncertainty in the economic outlook, it becomes all the more important to recognize and manage the risks inherent in the current environment, perhaps by shifting more assets into shorter-term, less-volatile assets like short-term Treasury bills or even cash (which, thanks to higher interest rates, are yielding significantly more than they did up until recently) or diversifying into assets that are less correlated with other parts of the portfolio (such as reinsurance or secured private debt). Since ultimately, while neither advisors nor their clients may be able to control the more considerable forces that shape economic conditions today, they can recognize and (at least to some extent) control which risks they're exposed to and manage those risks to stay protected and on track for the long term!

Why International Diversification Is Still The Prudent Strategy (While Keeping Behavioral Biases, Risks, And Results In A Healthy Perspective)

July 5, 2023 07:03 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Investments

As the U.S. stock market has, on average, outperformed international equities over the last 15 years since emerging from the Great Recession of 2008, many investors argue that international diversification is a poor allocation of dollars that would otherwise be earning more in the U.S. market. The outperformance of U.S. stocks has led to the favoritism of ‘local’ investments over international ones through behavioral biases (e.g., recency bias and the tendency to confuse the familiar with the safe) that have swayed investors (and some advisors) away from international diversification entirely. However, despite recent market trends, there is a legitimate case to be made for international diversification – starting with the basic tenet of investing that past performance does not promise future returns.

In this guest post, Larry Swedroe, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, discusses why many investors tend to fall prey to recency bias, and explains why global diversification – and keeping short- and long-term results in the right perspective – remains a prudent strategy.

One common argument made by investors who refrain from global diversification is that, during systemic financial crises, everything does poorly, leading them to question the protection that international diversification offers during large market declines. While research may support this argument – that worst-case real returns for individual countries do tend to correspond with severe declines across all countries globally – the trend generally holds true only for the short term and the similarities in market behavior for countries around the globe tend to deteriorate over the long-term, as different countries naturally recover at different rates. But because no one can be sure of when and where these recoveries will happen, investors who are willing to spread the risk of slightly lower returns from globally diversified portfolios stand to yield the rewards of having an edge in the natural cycle of global markets in the aggregate.

Contrary to the view that global diversification may offer little protection from market declines, it is especially salient in cases of a worldwide recession – while the average individual country’s returns after such an event tend to stay depressed, global portfolios go on to eventually recover. In other words, while global diversification may not necessarily provide protection from the initial crash, it does create the potential for a significantly faster recovery. And this behavior tends to be more pronounced with longer time horizons – which are ultimately more relevant for investors with long-term wealth goals.

In addition to overlooking global long-term recovery patterns, investors often fail to consider the important role that valuation changes play in investment returns. Despite the caveat that “past performance is no guarantee of future results”, the patterns of historic past earnings data can offer insight into how a company is valued, which can influence the performance of its shareholders’ equity. For example, a strong case has been made for the predictive value of the CAPE 10, a price-to-earnings metric designed to assess relative market valuation, which is especially insightful when it comes to long-term returns. As while investment returns can be driven by underlying economic performance, such as through growth in earnings, they can also be driven by changes in valuations. And even though timing markets based on valuations in the short-term has not proven to be a successful strategy, the CAPE 10 has been positioned as a useful predictor of long-term future returns. Given the current (as of March 2023) economic positions for the U.S. CAPE (at 3.4%) and the EAFE CAPE 10 (5.6%), unless these values change, investors can reasonably estimate EAFE markets to outperform the S&P 500 by 2.2% annually.

Ultimately, the key point is that when evaluating for diversification, many investors can be prone to behavioral biases that preclude them from maintaining a well-diversified risk-appropriate portfolio that relies on a mix of U.S. and global investments. But by helping clients develop a clear understanding of the actual risks of diversification and a healthy perspective of historical market performance, advisors can prepare their clients to stay disciplined and focused on long-term results, ending out as both more informed and more insulated against inevitable market dips!