One of the most pressing questions for individuals nearing retirement is how much they will be able to withdraw from their portfolio each year without exhausting their retirement savings. But the problem is that almost all the variables involved in making that calculation, from market returns to life expectancy to the client's spending needs, are uncertain. This conundrum has spawned an entire field of research into Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWRs), seeking methods to thread the needle between over- and under-withdrawing the portfolio that are also flexible enough to adapt to clients' life circumstances – all while being simple enough to explain and apply in practice.
Several types of withdrawal strategies have arisen out of this research, each with its own benefits and drawbacks. Some 'fixed' SWR strategies, like the "4% Rule" developed by Bill Bengen, are relatively simple to apply – but because they're premised on having the client's portfolio survive the worst-case market return scenario, the vast majority of the time they'll result in the client having significant unspent (and unenjoyed) portfolio assets at the end of their lives. Other 'dynamic' withdrawal strategies, like the Guyton-Klinger guardrail method, can more precisely match portfolio withdrawals to market conditions (and often allow for higher total withdrawals), but the withdrawals under these strategies can vary significantly from year to year, leading to uncertainty and anxiety for some clients who use them.
One strategy that can serve as a happy medium between fixed and dynamic withdrawals borrows from the IRS's method of calculating Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from retirement accounts. Under the RMD method, the client's total portfolio value as of the end of the previous year is divided by a factor based on the client's remaining life expectancy (provided by IRS tables for RMD calculations). As a result, each year the client withdraws only a certain percentage of their portfolio, preventing over-withdrawals – but because the withdrawal percentage increases each year incrementally, there's a lower likelihood of leaving significant funds behind. And because the IRS publishes RMD tables for all ages (since, for example, a child who inherits an IRA may be subject to RMDs), the RMD method can be applied regardless of when the client decides to retire.
Furthermore, the RMD approach can be modified to reduce the volatility of annual withdrawals (e.g., if market movements cause a temporary drop or spike in the portfolio's value at year-end). Under this modified approach, the annual withdrawal is calculated based not just on the previous year-end portfolio balance, but on the average of the past three years. This helps smooth out year-to-year variations in annual withdrawals and can help keep clients from focusing too much on market conditions that could affect their 'paycheck' the next year.
The key point is that because the IRS has already done the work of calculating withdrawal tables meant to gradually deplete a portfolio throughout retirement, the RMD method presents a relatively easy-to-understand strategy that doesn't require special software or decision trees to implement. And with a few simple modifications – e.g., using the three-year average portfolio value to reduce withdrawal volatility and carving out specific amounts to set aside for legacy and other goals – advisors can help their clients customize the RMD method to meet their own needs and ultimately reduce the uncertainty around drawing down their portfolio in retirement!Read More...

