2025 proved to be a fruitful year for investors, with a wide range of asset classes generating positive returns. However, some investors might be nervous heading into 2026, with regular news headlines raising potential threats to the market, from elevated valuations to uncertainty around U.S. government policy. With this in mind, financial advisors can provide their clients with context surrounding these issues to help them make better-informed investment decisions in the year ahead.
One of the hottest topics in 2025 was the unprecedented level of capital expenditures into Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related businesses, including data centers, equipment (e.g., GPUs), and more. Which has made AI investment not only a key driver of the U.S. economy, but also of stock market returns (with sectors including Communication Services, Technology, and Industrials also seeing above-market returns on the year). Nonetheless, history offers important context for the AI boom, with previous transformative technologies (e.g., railroads in the 1860s and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s) following similar patterns of skepticism, rapid adoption, market exuberance, and adjustment of expectations. Which suggests that AI presents both a growth opportunity and a portfolio risk that should be managed carefully (e.g., by staying true to an appropriate asset allocation aligned with long-term goals).
Another potential concern for investors is the current level of market valuations, with the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio hovering just above 39, the second-highest level in over 150 years (trailing only the peak of the dot-com bubble). Notably, though, while certain market sectors are trading at relatively higher P/E ratios (e.g., Information Technology trading at a forward P/E of 26.8x), other sectors have lower valuations (e.g., Financials and Energy trading closer to 16x). Also, a key difference between today and the dot-com era is that current valuations are supported by earnings growth and business fundamentals, not just speculation. Nevertheless, maintaining appropriate diversification and avoiding overconcentration in high-valuation sectors remains essential for managing risk.
Market headlines in the first half of 2025 were driven in large part by ongoing tariff announcements, which led to an initial sharp market decline. While the market has bounced back and inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index have ticked up only slightly, the full effects of U.S. tariff policy have likely not yet been felt (e.g., in terms of companies making longer-term adjustments to prices or in tariffs' impact on global GDP). Also, in the world of government policy, investors may be looking ahead to a leadership change at the Federal Reserve in 2026 and to the Fed's interest rate policy. However, history shows that different Fed Chairs have presided over steady economic growth over the past several decades. Similarly, while the 2026 U.S. midterm elections represent a 'known unknown', market history suggests that the trends that affect portfolios remain unaffected by politics, even if control of Congress changes.
Ultimately, the key point is that many asset classes are supporting portfolios as we enter 2026 (with international stocks actually outperforming their U.S. counterparts in 2025 and fixed income playing a stabilizing role). For longer-term investors, this broader participation across asset classes reinforces the fundamental principle that diversification matters – no matter where news headlines might lead in 2026!

