Kitces | Nerd's Eye View - Investments

Should Financial Planners Invest Using Bucket Strategies Or Just Report That Way?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 15 May 2013 06:07:00 -0500

Financial planners have always sought to adjust their strategies and communication techniques to the realities of client needs, although the increasing volume of behavioral finance research is now beginning to document exactly how we as human beings sometimes think in very irrational ways, which in turn provides insight about how to best adapt to deliver effective advice. One common challenge area regarding investments in particular is our tendency for mental accounting - where we break up and categorize assets based on various needs and purposes, even if the underlying investments are flexible or entirely fungible - which in turn has spurred the growth of so-called "bucket strategies" that seek to allocate portfolios based on various goals, needs, or time horizons.

Unfortunately, though, recent research has shown that stringent applications of bucket strategies can potentially result in less optimal retirement outcomes, not better ones, particularly due to the "cash drag" and portfolios that can dial down too conservatively too fast; in addition, the reality is that mathematically, most of the benefits of bucket strategies are captured simply from traditional rebalancing strategies, which already ensure that stocks are bought (not sold) when they're down and that cash and bonds are used for spending needs when appropriate.

Nonetheless, from the behavioral perspective, using bucket strategies remains appealing, if only to help clients stay the course during stressful times. But ultimately, perhaps the best solution is not just to weigh the trade-off between managing with buckets (even if the results are worse) versus helping clients psychologically (which is still better than having them bail out at the worst of times), but to accomplish both by improving performance reporting to overlay buckets and goals on top of the portfolio. In other words, maybe the key is not that we need to change how we invest for clients, but simply to more effectively frame how we report the results?

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Proposal Threatens To Ban Specific Share Identification Method For Lot Level Accounting Tax Strategies

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 06:04:00 -0500

The specific share identification method allows investors to choose which investment is sold, which can be especially helpful when there are multiple lots purchased over time that each have a different cost basis, as advisors and their clients have the opportunity to identify exactly which shares to sell to get the best tax result. In the past, this strategy was implemented to maximize tax loss harvesting to minimize an individual's tax liability over time, although notably in today's world some advisors and clients are actually using it to ensure that long-term capital gains are harvested for those in the bottom tax brackets! Either way, though, specific share identification provided the planning opportunity, and in fact a popular feature of portfolio accounting and rebalancing software has been the ability to track and manage lot level accounting to optimize these decisions.

The rules for specific share identification were tightened up slightly in recent years, as 2008 legislation has been phasing in year by year that requires brokers and custodians to track the cost basis of newly purchased investments - so-called "covered securities" - and to report the results of sales to the IRS on a new Form 1099-B that provides information on not just the sales proceeds and sale date (as in the past), but also the cost basis, acquisition date, amount of the gain or loss, and character of the gain or loss (i.e., long-term or short-term). In addition, the new tracking rules effectively enforce the requirement that if advisors and their clients are going to use the specific share identification method, or otherwise want to set a favorable default method of accounting, it must be chosen by the time the sale occurs and the trade settles; otherwise, the lot selection is "locked in" and cannot be changed later.

In a new potential blow to the planning strategy, though, the latest 2014 Budget Proposal from President Obama would eliminate lot level accounting and the specific share identification method altogether, requiring instead that covered securities all be reported using the average cost method once they are held long enough to be eligible for long-term capital gains. Although some of the details remain unclear - most notably, whether the rules would apply only for stocks, or for mutual funds and ETFs as well - the bottom line is that the opportunity to make tax-savvy decisions about individual investment lots being sold may soon cease to be a value proposition for advisors and the technology that supports them!

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Asset Location: The New Wealth Management Value-Add For Optimal Portfolio Design?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 06:03:00 -0600

For the past several decades, asset allocation has been the cornerstone of portfolio design, with a focus on diversification and the addition of non-correlated investments to the portfolio to reduce overall volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns. This trend has been accelerated in recent years, as weak returns in both bonds and stocks have helped to fuel a drive towards "alternative" investments that further increase the intended diversification and the number of asset classes in the portfolio.

Yet running in parallel with this trend has been the rise of various types of tax-preferenced accounts, with first the IRA and 401(k) and more recently the Roth IRA and Roth 401(k), in addition to the ongoing presence of tax-deferred annuities and the standard taxable brokerage account. As a result, a new challenge is beginning to emerge: the question becomes not only which asset classes should be owned and in what amounts, but also where should those asset classes be held? In other words, it's not just about allocation of the assets to build a diversified portfolio now, but also about the locations in which to place those diversified investments.

Given that recent research has shown effective asset location decisions can add 20-50+ basis points of "free" value to annual returns, providing guidance on asset location is becoming increasingly popular. Yet unfortunately, asset location strategies are often dominated by myths and misperceptions! Ultimately, the reality is that good asset location decisions actually should be influenced by both the tax efficiency of investments and also their expected returns, which makes the analysis somewhat more complex... but also reveals why in today's environment most bonds actually should NOT go into tax-deferred accounts!

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Why Being Invested In Bonds At Today’s Rates May Be Entirely Rational After All

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 28 Nov 2012 06:03:00 -0600

As retail investor surveys show money continuing to rotate from stocks to bonds - despite sky-high bond prices and their associated ultra-low interest rates - there is increasing concern that investors may soon be blind-sided by at best a savage bond bear market, and at worst a bond bubble that pops. But are investors really buying into bonds because they're bullish on bonds, or because they're bearish on stocks with few appealing alternatives?

After all, if there really is a bond market bubble that's going to pop, the precipitous rise in interest rates could do even more harm to stock prices than bond prices, both from the relative value perspective (who wants to buy the S&P 500 at today's 2% dividend yields when bonds pay 6% again?) and from the economic perspective (a sharp rise in interest rates isn't exactly bullish for economic growth!).

Which means the reality may be that today's bond buying is not about hunting for return in bonds, but about managing the risk of equities (and/or other risk assets). Of course, if the investor really thought the popping of a bond bubble was looming, the best decision may simply be to go to cash. But given the uncertainty of timing, the next best choice for the bearish investor: stay invested, tilt the portfolio towards bonds (and likely shorten duration), and wait and see. Who knows, maybe rates will manage to go even lower from here, as they have 'surprisingly' done for the last 3 consecutive years!

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Does The DALBAR Study Grossly Overstate The Behavior Gap? (Guest Post)

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 06:02:00 -0500

It is an accepted belief that retail investors, swayed by a barrage of financial news and information, and the wiring in their own brains, tend to systematically buy at market peaks and sell at market lows, resulting in returns that are far lower than what could have been achieved by simply buying and holding. This so-called "behavior gap" has been quantified most famously over the years by DALBAR, which produces and annually updates a study of the difference between investor (dollar-weighted) returns and index (time-weighted) returns, and currently shows that investors have cost themselves more than 4% per year in returns for the past two decades. Yet the reality is that DALBAR's methodology confounds the impact of investor behavior, and the simple consequences of return sequences; it's entirely possible that some or all of the low DALBAR investor returns are simply due to the fact that markets rose for the first half of their time sample (the 1990s) and were flat for the second half (the 2000s). And in fact, that appears to be the case. Once DALBAR updated their projections to compare investor returns to a passive investor who simply invested systematically over the entire time period, the result surprisingly shows that retail investors in the aggregated actually outperformed systematic dollar cost averaging for the past 20 years!
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What Makes Something An (Alternative) Asset Class, Anyway?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 06:06:00 -0500

The most typical definition of an asset class is a group of securities that have similar risk/return characteristics, and behave similarly in the marketplace. Thus, for instance, stocks, bonds, and cash represent the three most common asset classes, as each have different risk/return characteristics and they behave very differently in response to various economic and market events.

One of the most common ways to attempt to determine whether an investment represents a unique asset class is to examine its correlation with other investments. After all, two investments that have different risk/return characteristics and behave differently in response to market events would likely show little similarity in returns over time, thereby exhibiting a low correlation. In turn, given how Modern Portfolio Theory demonstrates that investments with a low correlation to the rest of the portfolio can lower the overall volatility of the portfolio - even if the underlying investment itself is volatile on its own - advisors have increasingly sought out low correlation "alternative" asset classes and investments to manage risk through diversification.

The caveat, however, is that in an increasingly complex financial world, having a low correlation alone can actually be a remarkably poor and misleading indicator of what constitutes an (alternative) asset class.

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How Secular Market Cycles Can Change The Optimal Investment Strategy

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 18 Jul 2012 06:02:00 -0500

While we often focus on the long-term return of stocks, the reality is that market growth is very uneven, not just due to volatility, but as markets go through long-term cycles called secular bull and bear markets. In the midst of a secular bull market - such as the one that exploded stock prices upwards from 1982 to 2000 - the optimal investment strategy is fairly straightforward - buy-and-hold, buy more on the dips, and dial up the leverage and risk exposure. In the midst of a secular bear market, though, buy-and-hold tends to merely produce the flat returns associated with the overall markets, and instead concentrated stock-picker portfolios, sector rotation, alternative investments, and tactical asset allocation become more effective. Using the wrong strategies in the wrong investment environment can produce poor results - just as many styles of active management generated little to no value and just became a cost drag in the 80s and 90s, so too does buy-and-hold now generate benchmark returns that may do little to achieve client goals. The ultimate key is to match the investment strategy to the market environment, given that such cycles can persist for 1-2 decades at a time. And notwithstanding the fact that a secular bear market has been underway for 12 years, it appears that the secular bear market still has a ways to go - which means its dominant investment strategies still have many more years to shine.
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The Rise of Tactical Asset Allocation

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 06:06:00 -0500

The foundation of investment education for CFP certificants is modern portfolio theory, which gives us tools to craft portfolios that effectively balance risk and return and reach the efficient frontier. Yet in his original paper, Markowitz himself acknowledged that the modern portfolio theory tool was simply designed to determine how to allocate a portfolio, given the expected returns, volatilities, and correlations of the available investments. Determining what those inputs should be, however, was left up to the person using the model. As a result, the risk of using modern portfolio theory - like any model - is that if poor inputs go into the model, poor results come out. Yet what happens when the inputs to modern portfolio theory are determined more proactively in response to an ever-changing investment environment? The asset allocation of the portfolio tactically shifts in response to varying inputs!
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The Problems With Trying To Benchmark Unconstrained Portfolios (Guest Post)

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 06:02:00 -0500

Benchmarking is a standard tool for investors and investment professionals to evaluate the results of an investment manager. In a world of investing within asset classes and style boxes, the benchmarking process is relatively straightforward – any particular investment offering can be easily matched to an appropriate benchmark. In a world of unconstrained, “go-anywhere” style managers, though, the benchmarking process is less certain. Common methods to determine an appropriate benchmark – such as an ex-post regression of what the fund was invested in – can obscure the actions of the manager, for better or for worse. Is the only solution to simply select an arbitrary benchmark and proceed accordingly? Can we eschew a benchmark altogether?
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Is Structured Settlement Annuity Investing A Good Deal? Yes, but...

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 10:40:00 -0600

As interest rates remain low, investors - especially retirees - struggle to find yield wherever they can. Unfortunately, though, the necessity of earning a required return to fund financial goals becomes the mother of invention for a wide range of investment strategies, both legitimate and fraudulent. A recent offering of rising popularity is structured settlement annuity investing, often offering "no risk" rates of return in the 4% to 7% range. In general, the opportunity for "high yield" (at least relative to today's interest rates) and "no risk" is a red flag warning. But the reality is that with structured settlement annuity investing, the higher returns are legitimately low risk; the appealing return relative to other low-risk fixed income investments is not due to increased risk, but instead due to very poor liquidity. Which means such investment offerings can potentially be a way to generate higher returns, not through a risk premium, but a liquidity premium. But the caveat, however, is that the investments are so illiquid and the cash flows so irregular, they probably should at best only ever be considered for a very small portion of a client's portfolio anyway.

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Are Black Swans Just A Short-Term Distraction?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 09:34:00 -0600

One of the most common criticisms to the use of Monte Carlo in financial planning is its typical assumption that investment returns are normally distributed, when in reality the market appears to go through environments that may be more volatile than a normal distribution would predict, as highlighted by the events of the financial crisis. In the last four months of 2008 alone, the market experienced 20 high-volatility trading days with a standard deviation varying from 3.5 to almost 10... each of which should not have occurred more frequently than once per millenia to once per several billion years. Yet when we look at those returns on an annual basis, we see a very different picture - the one-year decline to the bottom in March of 2009 was a "mere" 2.5 standard deviation event, which is uncommon but entirely probable under a normal distribution. Which raises the question - are "black swans" just a short-term phenomenon that average out by the end of the year, and are we focusing too much on impossibly rare black swans instead of the rare-but-entirely-probable 2 standard deviation decline?
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Adjusting Portfolios Based On Valuation - Are We Expecting Too Much?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 10:00:42 -0600

As the popularity of tactical asset allocation and using market valuation to inform investment decisions rises, so too do the criticisms to such methodologies. In the long run, this is part of a healthy dialogue that shapes the ongoing evolution of how we invest. But much of the recent criticism to being tactical in particular seems to suggest that if we can't get the timing exactly right, or calculate a valuation that works precisely to predict returns in all environments, that it should be rejected. In reality, though, even just participating in a few booms, or avoiding a handle of extreme busts, can still create significant long-term benefits for achieving client goals. Which raises the question - if we're really focused on the long term for clients, are we expecting too much from market valuation in the short term?
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Investment Decisions, Due Diligence, and Social Proof

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 05:22:34 -0600

In the midst of volatile, ambiguous, and uncertain markets, it’s often difficult to know what to do. In such a high stakes environment, we look for any clues that we can find, to figure out whether what we’re doing is “right” or not. Unfortunately, though, this can lead to trouble, as research shows that the methods and tools our brains use to make decisions are not always rational. For instance, sometimes we look to what others around us are doing, to determine whether our own actions are appropriate or not, rather than doing our own due diligence. In many situations, this form of “social proof” can be an effective means to fit into society. In other situations, though, it can potentially lead to herd behavior. Which raises the question – to what extent are our investment decisions as planners influenced by what other planners are doing, instead of our own due diligence?

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Who's Really At Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 05:27:00 -0600

A common complaint about the use of tactical asset allocation strategies - which vary exposure to bonds, equities, and other asset classes over time - is that they are "risky" to the client's long-term success. What happens if you reduce exposure to equities and you are wrong, and the market goes up further? Are you gambling your client's long-term success? Yet at the same time, the principles of market valuation are clear: an overvalued market eventually falls in line, and like a rubber band, the worse it's stretched, the more volatile the snapback tends to be. Which means an overvalued market that goes up just generates an even more inferior return thereafter. However, greedy clients may not always be so patient; there's a risk that the planner may get fired before valuation proves the results right. Which raises the question: is NOT reducing equity exposure in overvalued markets about managing the CLIENT'S risk, or the PLANNER'S?
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Managed Futures May Be A Decent Investment, But They Are NOT A New Asset Class!

nospam@example.com (Michael Kitces) — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 09:35:00 -0500

In the ongoing search for more diversification - and especially, low correlations as a potential for stabilizing returns in a difficult stock environment - advisors have increasingly shifted in recent years towards "alternative" investments. From real estate and REITs to gold and other commodities to more, a recent FPA survey on Alternative Investments found that 91% of advisors are using some form of alternative investments. Sadly, though, the focus on finding investments that have a low correlation - according to FPA's survey, the number one criteria for choosing an alternative investment - has grown to such an obsession, that we're willing to name anything that has a low correlation as "a new asset class." But the reality is that while some alternatives really are investments that truly have their own investment characteristics unique from stocks and bonds as asset classes, others alternatives - like managed futures - simply represent an active manager buying and selling existing asset classes. Which means it's about time for us to start distinguishing between a real alternative asset classes (e.g., commodities or real estate), and the real value of managed futures.

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